I'm not talking about Technical analysis here and I can't give you a formula to analyse an individual stock but this graph on Sanjay Bakshi's blog could give you an indication whether the equity market as a whole has become over-heated and it is time to sell-off.
( Image Copyright owned by Sanjay Bakshi )
The above graph has been created by plotting the Nifty dividend yield against the returns generated by Nifty over the next 3 years.
Thus, all an investor has to do is monitor the Nifty dividend yield and sell-off if it falls below 1.2% ( or whatever threshold you would like to set based on the above graph ).
However, there are few thing you need to keep in mind:
1. The above graph was based on historical values of Nifty and individual stocks may not follow a similar pattern. Thus this graph is more helpful to those who invest in index funds but can also be used as a reference by other investors.
2. The above graph considers returns generated over the subsequent 3 years, but the graph for investors with a different time horizon may look slightly different.
Please read this complete article by Sanjay Bakshi to know why he has made use of Dividend yield instead of P/E or P/B to plot this graph and also his view on the current market run-up.
